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The total cropping area for wheat, barley, oats, and oilseed rape in the UK has plummeted to its lowest level in over 40 years, measuring just 2.65 million hectares in 2024.
According to estimates from Defra, the area dedicated to wheat in England has declined by 11% from the previous year, now standing at 1.4 million hectares.
Forecasts indicate that wheat yields are expected to decrease by 8% compared to the five-year average, with industry experts estimating yields to fall between 7 to 8 tons per hectare.
For more insights, see: Poor OSR yields limit UK production while trade hits £380/t
This combination of lower yields and a reduced cropping area could potentially lead to total wheat production figures around 11 million tonnes, significantly down from last year’s output of 14.1 million tonnes.
Ed Downing, national crop nutrition manager at Frontier, remarked, “Many growers are challenged to evaluate how effective their crop management strategies have been and what this means for production outcomes.
“Frequently, decisions are based on instinct rather than data. This approach complicates understanding the true impact of factors like weather on yields, and there are far more precise methods to analyze this.”
He emphasized the importance of utilizing data for decision-making, which can facilitate learning for the upcoming year, allowing for adjustments that can be analyzed for effectiveness.
Despite the small domestic wheat crop, UK wheat markets are experiencing a downturn, as futures began at £182 per ton on September 4 for the November contract. This marks a decline of £44 per ton since its peak in May.
Prices reported by Farmers Weekly indicated that milling wheat was trading at £232 per ton midweek, reflecting a £56 per ton premium over feed wheat.
The decline in wheat volumes is expected to affect not only farm business returns but also put pressure on various traders and levy boards.
Oilseed Rape
The area planted with rapeseed has also seen a significant reduction, with Defra reporting a 27% drop compared to last year, now totaling just 342,000 hectares.
As of September 4, delivered oilseed rape prices varied between £369 per ton in Inverness and £393 per ton in Erith and Liverpool.
SOURCE
Maria Sanchez completed her Bachelor’s degree in Plant Sciences from the University of California, Davis, in the USA. Her studies focused on plant genetics and biotechnology, with an emphasis on developing disease-resistant crop varieties. Maria has contributed to several research projects aimed at improving crop resilience to climate change and is now pursuing her Master’s degree in Plant Breeding.
