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The UK is facing one of its worst cereal harvests in decades, with output expected to be more than 3 million tonnes below the five-year average in 2024. Heavy rain during planting and establishment has led to a 13% reduction in yields of wheat, winter and spring barley, oats, and oilseed rape.

According to new analysis, England is on track for one of its lowest harvests on record, with the wheat harvest projected to be down by nearly 20%. In Scotland, ongoing heavy rain has further exacerbated the situation, with only 10% of spring barley and a small area of wheat harvested in the North East region.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) used data on crop areas and yield forecasts to estimate this year’s harvest. They predict that the UK will have to rely on imports to meet the demand for bread and baked goods. Tom Lancaster from ECIU described 2024 as a challenging year for growers, reflecting the impact of climate change.

The English wheat harvest is expected to be more than 2.2 million tonnes (18%) lower than in 2023, raising concerns about whether the wheat will meet milling standards. NFU Scotland is calling on farmers to complete the annual harvest survey to assess the situation in Scotland and inform discussions with trade and governments.

Overall, the harvest season has been difficult, with farmers hoping for a break in the weather to allow for harvesting and planting of winter crops.NFU Scotland emphasizes the importance of gathering accurate data through the survey to better inform decision-making moving forward.

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