Why Are U.S. Agricultural Emissions Decreasing?

The EPA report was not specifically designed to assess the effectiveness of conservation programs or certain agricultural practices. Generally, agricultural emissions experts agree that the EPA’s annual greenhouse gas emissions inventory reflects such a short time period that it may be difficult to indicate whether it shows significant changes in our food system or is merely a result of fluctuations and disruptions in agricultural markets. Since the EPA continually improves its emissions calculation methodologies, it can also be challenging to compare small changes in emissions reported over time.

“There is so much uncertainty in these estimates that I would hesitate to place too much meaning on any small variation from year to year, except where there are observable changes in farm practices,” said Steven Hall, a professor in the Department of Plant and Agroecosystem Sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “The emissions inventories published by the EPA are subject to significant uncertainties.”

“I think the EPA is doing a commendable job trying to make these estimates. Such a task is almost impossible,” he added. The report clearly highlights the work that still needs to be done to transform our food production systems.

It also points to two simple issues that policymakers and world leaders could spend more time on: how climate policies can address emissions resulting from livestock production and fertilizer use, and how this can be achieved. “Unfortunately, the reductions observed in 2022 were not part of a planned strategy to support farmers in transitioning to lower-emission, more resilient agricultural systems,” he commented regarding the EPA report. “These reductions were the result of sudden shocks that severely impacted farmers and livestock. Fluctuating prices make it nearly impossible for farmers to plan ahead or to transition to more diverse cropping systems that require less fertilizer usage.”