France Faces 25% Decline in 2024 Soft Wheat Crop Due to Heavy Rainfall
The French agriculture ministry announced on August 9 that it has significantly reduced its forecast for the country’s soft wheat production in 2024, predicting a 25% decline compared to the previous year. This projection points to one of the lowest harvests in the last four decades for France, the European Union’s largest grain producer.
Persistent rainfall since the autumn has led to delayed planting, adverse effects on crop development, and a spike in crop diseases. The ministry noted that as of August 1, 2024, harvesting of cereals is still ongoing, hampered by high humidity and severe weather events in July. Consequently, all crop yield estimates have been revised downward.
The report highlighted a substantial reduction in cultivated area, which has now reached 4.2 million hectares, a decrease of 10.8% from 2023, attributing this to challenging winter weather conditions. These factors combined are likely to position the 2024 soft wheat yield among the three smallest harvests recorded in the past 40 years, with forecasts suggesting it might be the lowest since 1986.
Currently, the ministry estimates the wheat crop to be slightly higher than assessments by French analysts, who project an output between 25 and 26 million tonnes. Overall, total cereal production in France for 2024 is estimated at 54.8 million tonnes, down by approximately 10 million tonnes from the previous year.
In contrast, while winter grains have struggled, many spring crops have seen some advantages from the moist field conditions, allowing farmers to adapt their planting strategies.
The ministry’s first forecast for grain maize production indicates an anticipated output of 13.75 million tonnes, reflecting a 9% increase from the 12.62 million tonnes recorded in 2023. Meanwhile, barley output has been revised down to 10.4 million tonnes, which is 15% lower than 2023’s figures, with winter barley production expected to fall by 26% to 7.2 million tonnes, whereas spring barley is projected to rise by 25% to reach 3.2 million tonnes.
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John Peterson graduated with a degree in Agricultural Sciences from Wageningen University in the Netherlands. His specialization is in sustainable crop production and soil health management. John is passionate about integrating modern technology with traditional farming methods to enhance productivity while preserving the environment. He currently works as a consultant, helping farmers adopt sustainable practices.