2024 Wheat and Barley Yield Forecast and Farmer Support Expectations
Wheat and Barley Harvest Forecast and Support Expectations
ANKARA – July 6, 2024 – Şemsi Bayraktar, the President of the Turkish Union of Agricultural Chambers (TZOB), evaluated the harvest forecasts for wheat and barley and the support expectations of farmers in a video press statement.
Bayraktar noted that during the 2023-2024 production season, especially in the spring months, the irregular and delayed rainfall, followed by sudden temperature increases, negatively affected the grain formation in some regions. He emphasized that these sudden temperature fluctuations stressed the plants and highlighted the need for developing crop varieties better suited to temperature changes.
He pointed out that rising temperatures increased plants’ water needs, leading to higher irrigation demands and significantly raising production costs.
The Threat of Irregular Rainfall
Data indicated that rainfall in April fell below normal levels, leading to significant decreases in regions such as the Black Sea, Mediterranean, Aegean, Central Anatolia, and Eastern Anatolia. Although there were signs of increased rainfall in some areas in May, the irregular precipitation during critical periods of March, April, and May continued to threaten agricultural production.
Expectations for Decreased Harvest
Bayraktar expressed that the harvest process began early this year due to climatic reasons, with almost half of the harvest completed nationwide. While an increase in yield was observed in the Çukurova region, he stressed that farmers in some provinces were unable to achieve satisfactory yields. A significant decrease is expected in barley production compared to last year. According to information from agricultural chambers, barley production is predicted to drop from 9.2 million tons last year to 7.8 million tons, while wheat production is expected to decrease from 22 million tons to 20 million tons.
Market Prices Below Intervention Purchase Prices
Farmers are uneasy about encountering prices below the announced intervention purchase prices this year, Bayraktar stated, noting a decline in free market prices for barley by 7.7% and wheat by 6%. Last week, barley prices fell to 7,070 lira per ton, while bread wheat prices reached 9,008 lira and durum wheat prices dropped to 9,607 lira.
To address these adverse conditions, Bayraktar argued that announced intervention purchase prices should be revised, with an increase in the support payments of 1,750 lira per ton for wheat and 750 lira per ton for barley. He remarked that despite all challenges, Turkish farmers continue to produce, emphasizing the need for long-term and realistic agricultural policies as their greatest support.
John Peterson graduated with a degree in Agricultural Sciences from Wageningen University in the Netherlands. His specialization is in sustainable crop production and soil health management. John is passionate about integrating modern technology with traditional farming methods to enhance productivity while preserving the environment. He currently works as a consultant, helping farmers adopt sustainable practices.